The Potential Negative impact of Establishing “Jubaland State” founded on a policy of Exclusion

The aim of this article is not to cause further problems for the southern Somalis consisting of all Somali clans who have all suffered during the last 23 years. The aim to try to help prevent further complications and sufferings of the southern Somali clans that may result from establishing southern Somalia federal sates based on an unfairness and in a way that may exclude certain clans.
Up to year 1780 the peoples of Horn of Africa were, among others, those of Abyssinian, Adel, Ajan and Zansibar. By 1859 the peoples have curved up the land among themselves with the Somali and Zanzibar occupying the lion’s share. By 1896, after the European scramble for Africa and their Berlin conference of 1884 the region was subdivided into British, French and Italian colonies. Looking at most of the historical maps one clearly sees that the inhabitants of the area north of river juba were the Rahanwein (DigilMirifle) as they are still today. River Juba is still the Rahanwein’s natural southern border and the southern Darod’s northern border.
The term Jubaland or Ortre Giuba (the other Juba as the Italians referred to it) came into use within the Somali territorial politics from 1925 when Great Britain handed parts of its then East African colonies. The area handed to Italy was all located south of river Juba. The area north of the river was already known as Upper Juba (Alta Guiba as the Italians referred to it). The majority of its inhabitants were mainly the Rahanwein (DigilMirifle) and the Mai-Mai Somali was and is still the main language spoken. Italy became the dominant force during the period of 1935-1942. Britain got control of all Somali-lands, except the French Somali-land, in the Horn of Africa, from 1942 to 1950. Later, the UN gave Italy its former Italian Somali-land but only to administer it as a UN Trust ship from 1950 – 1960. It redrew the boundaries of its Italian Somaliland creating 6 regions: Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Benadir, Hiran, Mudug and Majertenia (today’s Puntland).
The Somali Republic that was created in 1960 consisted of eight regions. The other two: North West and North East came from former British Somaliland. Today, the proposed “Jubaland” is an area with disputed borders and has namy names depending to with whom one is talking. .
To almost all the original clans of southern Somalia, consists of a combination of old Upper Juba and Lower Juba regions plus the area south of Mogadishu of the old Benadir region is refered to as the “South Western State of Somalia”or the “Ganane State of Somali”a or the “Asal-Land State of Somalia” or the “Azania State of Somalia” or the “Jubaland State of Somalia”. Currently this area consists of the 6 regions. Namely Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Lower Shabelle.
It was in the 1980’s when Somalia ruled by a Somali born in Shilabo town in Ethiopia, redrew the boundaries of the original 8 regions it inherited in 1969 from the Somali civilian government that the Somali military overthrew. His regime created the myth of him, the general, being born in Garbaharey, a Marehan village located south of river Juba, within the boundaries of Bardere district in the Upper Juba region. His regime created today’s 18 regions of Somalia without consultation consulting with the stakeholders.
From the Upper Juba region they curved sections of the Rahanwein traditional territories north of ruiver Juba and put them in “Gedo region” with Garbaharey as its capital.. Gedo includes the districts of Lugh Ganane, the traditional seat town of the historical Gasar Gude Sultanate of the Rahanwein; Bardere, a city of learning of the Rahanwein and Jameecada Bardere people; El Wak district of the Garre of the Digil; and parts of “Middle Juba region” with Bu’aale , a village partly populated by the Ogaden as its capital, contain the traditional Rahanwein districts of Sakow, Dujuma, Jilib and Jamame which are all located north of river Juba.
The Jareer Weyne, the Somali Arab, the Shekhal and sections of the Hirab of the Hawiye as well as the Biyomaal of the Dir and a mionority of the Marehan and Ogaden reside north of river Juba as well as south of it.
Even though all Somalis, no matter what clan they belong to was negatively affected the 25 year long civil war, the victims who suffered the most are the DigilMirifle whose people have been robbed, displaced and mass murdered initially by other clans’ militias of various names such as USC, SPM, SNF, SSNM, Juba Valley Authority and later Al Shabaab, the Ras Kiamboni Brigade, the Ahlu Sunah Wal Jame’a and sections of the Somali army that targets them for clan related reasons.
Does the world not remember the 1991-1992 near extermination of the Rahawein when other clans’ militias turned Baidoa into the “city of death” which was one of the main justifications for the USA led Operation Restore Hope ordered by President George Bush Senior in December 1992 and implemented by President Bill Clinton until 1995? Does the world not remember when President Mary Robinson of Ireland and the internationally well-known model Iman visiting that famine hit areas during those years?
Does the world remember how the Shabab who’s well known leaders original from Somaliland, Puntland, the Somali State of Ethiopia and central Somali regions occupied the 6 southern Somali regions from 2007 – 2013, still h going in parts of this area, and how they “created famine and robed the people of their children and wealth” and forced them to forceful create the “exodus” to Mogadishu during year 2011?
Historically, the DigilMirifle (Rahanwein) as a community were not and have not been a threat to Kenya, Ethiopia and to any Somali clan. Since 1991 the DigilMirifle territories were the battle ground for the two other main rival clans of the south: Hawiye and Darod. The only time the Rahanwein took up arms was from 1995 to 2004 when the Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA) fought back in their efforts to stop the above two clans from exterminating them. Will the world watch and support these victims identity and land being stolen and being continuously vilified?
Currently, The Ras Kiamboni front of the Ogaden and the Ahlu Sunah of the Merahan together with elements within the Somali army operating in these “3 southern Somali regions” seem to be telling Kenya, Ethiopia, IGAD, AU, EU, UN, USA and the international community that they are fighting Al Shabab and are going to “box off the Hawiye clan” extremist elements of the Southern Darod in the area south of river Juba and their kin from Ethiopia and Kenya, seem to be bend, with the help of Kenyan troops in the case of the Ras Kiamboni Brigade, and Ethiopian troops, in the case of the Ahlu Sunah of the Merahan, and with the political backing of the Puntland State of Somalia, on excluding, displacing or killing all the peace loving members of the original Darod nationals and all most all non Darod Somali clans specially the Rahanwein (DigilMirifle) in the 3 Juba regions out of which they wish to create a Jubaland State of Somalia.
They may say, “the future Jubaland State will be for all Somalis in the region” and they may even bring in individuals claiming that they represent such and such clans of the Darod, DigilMirifle, Hawiye or Dir or any other but the representative are more likely to be imposters from northern Kenya, Eastern Ethiopia and/or Puntland. Even if the persons are telling the truth about his/her clan and the fact that they are of the original population, he/she may be under gun and thus will not be in a position to negotiate properly for their clan.
The extremists of these clans may brand any other local clan member and/or militia who try to resist them as being Al Shabaab and any other Leader who challenges them as an Al Shabaab sympathiser or a spoiler but the question is who were /are the Al Shabaab and/or Hizbul Islam? Who brought this alien ideology of the Islamists into the Somali clan politics? Elements of the: ONLF? Al Itihad Al Islami? Al I’tisam?.
If Jubaland is built on the assumption that the exclusion of the Rahanweini and associated clans while their territories in area north of river Juba are handed on a plate to the Ogaden and the Marehan and the Harti Group as they continue to claim these territories as theirs then the opportunity for future peace in that part of Somalia may be lost for a while. There are likely to be long running territorial disputes and clashes that could disrupt the long term Somali peace process as communities will be fighting over territories such as what is happening between Somaliland (Isaq caln dominated) and Puntland (Majertein dominated) which are having long term confrontation for the territory in the east of Somaliland, namely, eastern Sanag, eastern Sool and parts of Togdhere regions (all part of the North eastern Region of the former British Somaliland as it was when joining
the Somali Republic in July 1960. Their conflict is based on clan membership because the Majertien say, “the inhabitants of those regions are of the Harti Darod like those of Puntland so they must be part of Puntland instead of them being part of Somaliland, an Isaq and Dir dominated territory”.
The Darod sub-clans in these northern disputed territories are fed up of the two “states” fighting over them and have recently declared a state of their own, “Khaatuma State of Somalia”.
An alternative long term solution for the current 6 southern Somali regions may be:
1. The formation of a properly representative Jubaland State of Somalia that either consists solely the area up to the southern banks of river Juba dominated by the southern Darod but will have minorities the largest of which are the Rahanwein, Beesha Shanaad and Hawiye or
2. While the area from the northern banks of river Juba plus Lower Shabelle, Bay and Bakool dominated by the Rahanwein (DigilMirifle) forming another state but it will have minorities including the Beesha Shanaad, Hawiye, Darod and Dir, or
3. Alternatively a state consisting of all the six southern regions could be a better idea for the long term peace of all stakeholders. The stakeholders being the Rahanwein, the Darod, the Hawiye, the Beesha Shanaad and Dir, respectively. What names will such a state have doesn’t matter as long as it is based on fair power sharing system for all stake holders. In such a scenario, Baidoa could be the political capital and Kismayo the commercial capital.
Since 1991, almost all of the internally displaced people in the camps in Mogadishu, Puntland and Somaliland, are of the Rahanwein and associated clans from the six southern regions of Somalia.
At one point in time these people who were forced out the area of today have proposed Jubland, will want to return to their towns, villages, farms, communities, coastal area as well as to restart their nomadic life styles. Where will they go if in the meantime their traditional lands were handed in a plate over to the extremist elements within the Darod who want to exclude them from “Jubaland” in which the Darod are going to be the exclusive stakeholders? Will the return of the displaced Rahanwein and the others become an international issue and what impact will that have in the area? If areas on the eastern areas the regions of Sanaag and Sool are being disputed on clan related basis by Somaliland and Puntland and if Mudug region and the city of Galkayo are accepted and divided into two Somali federal states, again based on traditional clan boundaries, what is the rational for including the area on the northern banks of river Juba to a Jubaland that is to be dominated by one clan against the interests of the other major stake holders whose land is being stolen? The current Somali Federal Government and its supporters within the international community supporters should not be sleep walking into a trap that will result a permanent exclusion of dome Somalis for the benefit of others just for the sake of federalism. The current Somali Prime Minister, from Galgadud region od central Somalia, should be humane enough not to try and repeat and compound the injustices that Mohamed Siad Barre of Ethiopia’s Shilabo town inflicted on the majority of the Somali clans that reside in these 6 southern Somalia regions.
A A Bulle, Msc
maisodias@hotmail.com